Industrial Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Reinforcement Learning and PSO-LSSVM

被引:65
|
作者
Ge, Quanbo [1 ]
Guo, Chen [2 ]
Jiang, Haoyu [3 ,4 ]
Lu, Zhenyu [5 ,6 ]
Yao, Gang [2 ]
Zhang, Jianmin [7 ]
Hua, Qiang [8 ]
机构
[1] Tongji Univ, Sch Elect & Informat Engn, Shanghai 201804, Peoples R China
[2] Shanghai Maritime Univ, Logist Engn Coll, Shanghai 201306, Peoples R China
[3] Southeast Univ, Sch Automat, Nanjing 211189, Peoples R China
[4] Hangzhou Zhongheng Prov Key Enterprise Res Inst P, Energy Res Inst, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China
[5] Nanjing Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Meteorol Observat & Informat Proc, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China
[6] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Atmospher Environm & Equip, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China
[7] Hangzhou Dianzi Univ, Sch Automat, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China
[8] Hangzhou Zhonhen Power Energy Co Ltd, Hangzhou 310051, Peoples R China
关键词
Clustering analysis; data-driven; optimization algorithm; power load forecasting; reinforcement learning;
D O I
10.1109/TCYB.2020.2983871
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
Influenced by many complex factors, it is very difficult to obtain high-performance industrial power load forecasting. The industrial power load forecasting is deeply studied by fusing some machine-learning methods for industrial enterprise power consumers. As a result, a novel power load forecasting method is proposed by taking into account the variation of load characteristics in different regions, industries, and production patterns. First, through the improved K-means clustering analysis, the historical load data are classified as the production patterns to which they belong. Then, the prediction algorithm combining reinforcement learning with particle swarm optimization and the least-squares support vector machine is proposed. Finally, the improved algorithm in this article is used for short-term load forecasting separately by the load data in different patterns after the above processing. The forecasting method in this article is based on data driven with real datasets. The results of the simulation experiment show that the improved prediction algorithm can distinguish the changes in different production patterns and identify the load characteristics of different regions and industries with high prediction accuracy, which has practical application value.
引用
收藏
页码:1112 / 1124
页数:13
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