An updated pest risk assessment for spread of Erwinia amylovora and fire blight via commercial apple fruit

The phytosanitary risk associated with the movement of export-quality apple fruit to countries where fire blight does not occur is reassessed based upon additional data available since 1998 and clarification or correction of previously misinterpreted data present in the literature. The low epiphytic fitness of Erwinia amylovora (Ea) on apple fruit, the documented low incidence of viable Ea populations on mature apple fruit and the lack of a documented pathway by which susceptible host material could become infected from fruit-borne inoculum remain unchanged, and support the view that movement of Ea via commercial apple fruit is highly unlikely. With this new information, we updated a previously published model to re-estimate the likelihood of fire blight outbreaks in new areas because of commercial fruit shipment. This likelihood decreased in every scenario, and ranged from one outbreak in 5217 years to one in 753,144 years. By using the corrected and newly published data and by making assumptions based upon documented pathogen biology, the model gives more robust statistical support to the opinion that the risk of importing Ea on commercial apple fruit and the concomitant risk of establishing new outbreaks of fire blight is so small as to be insignificant. Published by Elsevier Ltd.