SIR-Type Epidemic Models as Block-Structured Markov Processes

被引：15
|
作者：
Lefevre, Claude [1 ]
Simon, Matthieu [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Libre Bruxelles, Dept Math, Campus Plaine CP 210, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium
[2] Univ Melbourne, Sch Math & Stat, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia
来源：
METHODOLOGY AND COMPUTING IN APPLIED PROBABILITY | 2020年 / 22卷 / 02期
基金：
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词：
SIR epidemic models; Block-structured Markov processes; Matrix-analytic methods; PROBABILITIES;
D O I：
10.1007/s11009-019-09710-y
中图分类号：
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号：
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要：
This paper proposes a block-structured Markov process to describe the spread of epidemics of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) type. Our purpose is to determine the distribution of the final state of the process and of some other interesting measures of the dimension of the epidemic. The followed modeling approach proves to be simple and systematic. Its flexibility is underlined by the presentation of several specific models that extend the classical general epidemic. Finally, two numerical examples illustrate some of the results obtained.
引用
收藏
页码：433 / 453
页数：21
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