Ecological Risk Assessment based on Climate Change

Based on PETAR (procedure for ecological tiered assessment of risks) method, we assessment the regional ecological risk and predict the trend. In the last 5 decades, significant increase in temperature but precipitation and sunshine reduce, this trend was more obvious in the autumn. Ecological boundaries are northern and eastern declining, about 240m /year. The trend increases the risk of regional ecological. The ecological risk assessment results show that: 1) Ecological risks of Northwest quickly spread to eastward and south. 2)The ecological risk spread from southeast and southern coast to inland. 3) Ecological fragility of ecosystems is different in variety of land uses. The ecological vulnerability of bare land and grassland is of the highest degree; Ecological fragility of forest and paddy field is the minimum. 4) Ecological risk is very relevant to the slope and the height.