Green Building Contractors 2025: Analyzing and Forecasting Green Building Contractors' Market Trends in the US

With population growth, the demand for building construction is continuously increasing. This comes at the price of the built environment where the building sector is contributing to large energy consumption and carbon footprint releases. To encourage sustainable construction, contractors need to see the market benefit of "going green". Previous studies of green building contractors (GBCs) mainly relied on qualitative discussions and lacked studying the market performance which drives contractors' decisions the most. This paper collects GBC revenue data from the Engineering News-Record magazine for the top 100 GBCs over a 13-year period and performs trend analysis to assess the market performance of GBCs and time series analysis to forecast future revenues. In addition, k-means clustering technique was used to divide the firms into subsets of similar behavior to understand growth trends for different firm sizes. The results show a continuous increase in green building revenues (GBRs), where commercial office buildings contribute the most to it. Furthermore, the firm ranks responsible for most of the growth are identified; mainly the top 9. Predictions show the expected steady increase in GBR in the upcoming years which is anticipated to reach 83 billion USD in 2025. The findings inform contractors considering executing green buildings by understanding the market trends and forecasted revenues. Moreover, contractors who are already in the green building business can use this information to increase their revenues in their respective market subset.