Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China

Commercial logging in natural forests was banned in China in 2017, and plantations have become the main timber supply source; hence, fast-growing and high-yielding timber plantations will be an important solution for addressing large timber gaps in China, whether now or in the future. This study simulated the potential distribution area of 12 widely distributed fast-growing timber tree species based on a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model, and we also analysed the potential distribution area of these 12 species under different projected future climate change scenarios. The future climate change scenarios were defined as four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0, and SSP 5-8.5) and four periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) based on nine global circulation models. The results indicated that these 12 species were widely distributed in China, and the potential distribution areas ranged from 1.11 x 106 km2 to 2.81 x 106 km2, mainly in South China, Northeast China and North China. There were dynamic potential distribution area changes with varying degrees of temperature increase; by the end of this century, under the most moderate warming scenario (SSP 1-2.6) in which the average temperature increase will be 2.41 degrees C, most species will expand their potential distribution area, and only 4 species will experience decreases. In the most severe warming scenario (SSP 5-8.5) in which the average temperature increase will be 6.8 degrees C, 7 species experienced considerable decreases in their potential distribution area with severe habitat fragmentation, while the potential suitable habitats of the other 5 species increased significantly, with an average growth rate of 30.79%. Hence, climate change will bring great uncertainty to fast-growing timber tree planting in China, and adequate attention should be given to planning resource management and planting in the future.