Age Structure and Trend in the Development of China's Marriage Squeeze

In China, a continuously abnormal sex ratio at birth is producing a severe marriage squeeze, with far more marriageable men than women. In this study, we propose a new index to measure the intensity of the male marriage squeeze. This index captures the intensity of the marriage squeeze overall, but can also be used to identify patterns across different age cohorts and between rural and urban areas. Data from China's Sixth census in 2010 are used to observe the marriage squeeze in China from 2010 to 2019, then population forecasts are used to predict the male marriage squeeze over the next 30 years. There are three main findings. First, China's marriage squeeze intensity will continue to rise until it peaks in 2043. Second, the age distribution of China's marriage squeeze is clustered within specific age intervals. Third, the male marriage squeeze is significantly greater in rural areas than in urban areas. Uncovering these patterns is critical for a better understanding of the male marriage squeeze and devising effective solutions.