An Assessment of Climate-Induced Conflict Risks Over Shared Water Resources in Africa

This paper was designed to inform policymakers and stakeholders about the implications of climate change and the scarcity of water due to climatic and non-climatic factors. This scarcity in shared water resources could lead to a dispute over its distribution and use. Consequently, the study is specifically aimed at shedding light on negotiation as a mitigation tool for conflict resolution in water-stressed areas. Both historic and scientific data that shows the frequent occurrences of water dispute among African countries are used. A conflict resolution technique to disputing parties is proposed. The results of the analysis suggested that threats to water security are already the primary cause of some of the most intractable conflict in Africa. Salinization of coastal aquifers due to heavy withdrawals of freshwater, pollution of rivers, lakes, and reduction in hydropower energy as direct consequences to climatic changes, as well as other abuses of water resources, could lead to extremely serious disputes. The study has also shown that even though technical solutions are now available for solving most of the existing problems related to water resources and other environmental issues, the social and political mechanisms for realistically implementing these solutions within the sustainable development paradigm are still unknown. Furthermore, conflict over the utilization of water resources within a sustainable development paradigm is especially pronounced in the context of transboundary river basins, as well as transboundary aquifers that cross international boundaries. Negotiation on water in areas of conflict could be used as a valuable tool to help negotiate policies, treaties and laws that promote sustainable development throughout the basin, and especially with respect to the equitable utilization of water from both quality and quantity viewpoints.