Numerical Convergence of the Block-Maxima Approach to the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

被引:56
|
作者
Faranda, Davide [1 ]
Lucarini, Valerio [1 ,2 ]
Turchetti, Giorgio [3 ]
Vaienti, Sandro [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Reading, Dept Math & Stat, Reading RG6 6AX, Berks, England
[2] Univ Reading, Dept Math, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6AX, Berks, England
[3] Univ Bologna, INFN Bologna, Dept Phys, I-40126 Bologna, Italy
[4] Univ Sud Toulon Var, Univ Aix Marseille 1, CNRS, Ctr Phys Theor,UMR 6207, F-13288 Marseille 09, France
[5] CPT, FRUMM Federat Rech Unites Math Marseille, F-13288 Marseille, France
基金
欧洲研究理事会;
关键词
Extreme values; Dynamical systems; EVT; GEV; Mixing; Logistic map; Chaos; INTERMEDIATE-COMPLEXITY MODEL; MIDLATITUDE ATMOSPHERIC JET; STATISTICAL PROPERTIES; POINCARE RECURRENCES; SEISMIC RISK; TOTAL-ENERGY; EVENTS; PRECIPITATION; FLUCTUATIONS; INFERENCE;
D O I
10.1007/s10955-011-0234-7
中图分类号
O4 [物理学];
学科分类号
0702 ;
摘要
In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme Value Theory. We pursue these investigations by giving analytical expressions of Extreme Value distribution parameters for maps that have an absolutely continuous invariant measure. We compare these analytical results with numerical experiments in which we study the convergence to limiting distributions using the so called block-maxima approach, pointing out in which cases we obtain robust estimation of parameters. In regular maps for which mixing properties do not hold, we show that the fitting procedure to the classical Extreme Value Distribution fails, as expected. However, we obtain an empirical distribution that can be explained starting from a different observable function for which Nicolis et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 97(21): 210602, 2006) have found analytical results.
引用
收藏
页码:1156 / 1180
页数:25
相关论文
共 50 条