Risk assessment of cost overrun using fuzzy logic model

Many construction projects are undergoing losses due to various reasons. Hence study of cost overrun place a crucial role to minimise these losses in future projects. This paper aims to analyse 40 most important cost overrun factors of Indian construction industry which are identified through literature review. A fuzzy logic model is developed in MATLAB according to the Indian construction scenario considering two input parameters severity index (SI), Probability Index (PI) and one output parameter Fuzzy Index of Cost overrun (FIC) as it is capable of handling complex situations. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect the data of 40 cost overrun factors which is further incorporated to developed fuzzy logic model to obtain their respective risk magnitudes. In this paper, a case study is carried out on Hyderabad Metro Rail project. The top five factors causing cost overrun in the Hyderabad Metro Rail project are identified as Land acquisition problem, Social and Cultural, Financial difficulty faced by contractor, Fluctuations in material's from the present research work.Copyright (c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Conference on Design, Manufacturing and Materials Engineering.