Long-term climate-related changes in somatic growth and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon

We used multiple regression and path analysis to examine the effects of regional and larger spatial scales of climatic/oceanic conditions on the growth, survival, and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta). Variability in the growth of chum salmon at ages 1 to 4 was estimated from scale analysis and the back-calculation method using scales of 4-year-old adults returning to the Ishikari River in Hokkaido, Japan, during 1943-2005. Growth of chum salmon at age 1 was less during the period from the 1940s to the mid-1970s compared to the period from the mid-1980s to the present. On the other hand, growth of chum salmon at ages 2, 3, and 4 has declined since the 1980s. Path analysis indicated that growth at age 1 in the Okhotsk Sea was directly affected by warmer sea surface temperatures associated with global warming. The increased growth at age 1 led directly to higher survival rates and indirectly to larger population sizes. Subsequently, in the Bering Sea, the larger population size was directly associated with decreased growth at age 3 and indirectly associated with shorter adult fork lengths despite the lack of relationships among sea surface temperature, zooplankton biomass, and growth at ages 2 to 4. Therefore, higher growth at age 1 related to global warming positively affected the survival rate of juvenile chum salmon in the Okhotsk Sea. The higher survival rates in turn appear to be causing a population density-dependent effect on growth at ages 2 to 4 and maturation in the Bering Sea due to limited carrying capacity.