The relationship between alcohol outlets and crime is not an artefact of retail geography

Background and Aims In previous research, the spatial distribution of alcohol outlets has been shown to be related to the spatial distribution of crime. However, the spatial distribution of alcohol outlets is also related to the spatial distribution of other retail (and non-retail) activities. We measured whether a residual relationship between alcohol outlets and crime remains statistically significant after controlling for retail density. Design and setting A cross-sectional analysis of area unit data for Hamilton, New Zealand. Measurements We constructed index measures of retail density using principal component analysis, based on counts of retail outlets (non-alcohol outlets alone and all outlets in total). We estimated the relationship between outlets and police calls-for-service using negative binomial regression, controlling for social deprivation, population and demographics. In our primary analysis, we employed a two-stage process that first accounted for the correlation between calls-for-service and retail density in a negative binomial regression model, then tested for correlation between alcohol outlet counts and the first-stage residuals. Findings The spatial distributions of retail outlets of all types were highly correlated with each other, and all types of retail outlets (alcohol and non-alcohol) were correlated with crime, after controlling for social deprivation, population and demographics. After controlling for index measures of retail density and other controls, statistically significant semipartial correlations remained with counts of alcohol outlets of all types. For example, in our preferred specification, which controlled for non-alcohol retail density in the first stage, an additional off-licence alcohol outlet was associated with 97.34 (95% confidence interval = 36.66-158.0) additional police calls-for service. Conclusions There is a positive relationship between the spatial distribution of alcohol outlets and the spatial distribution of crime that appears to persist even after controlling for non-alcohol retail density. The relationship between alcohol outlets and crime is not simply an artefact of retail geography.