Predicting ecosystem shift in a Salt Lake by using remote sensing indicators and spatial statistics methods (case study: Lake Urmia basin)

The consequences of unsustainable human activities on the environment are often delayed, when it is too late to compensate. New approaches are based on the use of "spatial statistics" of leading indicators to measure the "critical slowing down" in a degraded ecosystem, when it is reaching to a tipping point. This research predicts the tipping points in the ecosystem of Lake Urmia Basin (LUB) based on spatial statistics. By Remote Sensing (RS) indicators, their effectiveness in assessing the state of the ecosystem was evaluated in a 16-years period (2002-2017). Seven spectral indicators (NDVI, NDWIv,NDWIw,NDSI,SRDI, NMDI and MVWR) were extracted from ten MODIS images. Ability of the indicators to identify critical point in time-series was investigated by five spatial statistic methods (Moran's-I, Getis-Ord-Gi, Gearys-C, variance, and skewness). The results showed that Moran's-I is more successful in predicting the ecosystem tipping point(s) in comparison with other methods. In addition, the ability to predict ecosystem trends by the autocorrelation of MVWR is higher than other indicators. According to results, the tipping points of LUB occurred in the years of 2008 to 2010 and 2015. For further studies, it is recommended to use radar indicators for identifying tipping points of the similar vulnerable ecosystems.