Prognostic value of residual cancer burden and Miller-Payne system after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer

Background: To verify the feasibility of using the residual cancer burden (RCB) index to stratify prognosis of patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and to compare RCB with the Miller-Payne system. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological data of patients receiving treatment between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare the survival outcomes and estimate disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Harrell's concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of RCB and Miller-Payne system. Results: A total of 423 female patients with complete data were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up time of 58.5 months (range 7-126). 84 patients experienced recurrence, and 48 experienced breast cancer related death. RCB index and the Miller-Payne system were associated with prognosis in the whole cohort. Patients who achieved RCB-I had similar survival outcomes as those with pathological complete response (pCR, RCB-0). In whole cohort, for the RCB index and the Miller-Payne system, respectively, C-indexes for DFS were 0.73 and 0.64, for DSS were 0.74 and 0.64. The average RCB score was different among three subtypes (F=9.335, P<0.001). Conclusions: The RCB index and the Miller-Payne system can stratify survival outcome of patients after NAC, and RCB had a superior prediction accuracy, especially for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). New cut-off value should be sought in order to improve prediction accuracy.