Performance of hydrological models in fluvial flow simulation

This research aimed to compare the performance of the Hydrologic Engineering Centers-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for flow predictions in a river basin, in Southeast Brazil, which is highly susceptible to floods and mass movements. Data of the soil type, land use and cover, relief, climate, and flow were used. The calibration and validation of the models were performed based on the historical fluviometric series of the station located in the basin. The statistical indices Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, deviation percentage, and the standard deviation of the observations were used to evaluate the models. According to the obtained indices, both software systems were satisfactorily able to simulate the flow. Under the conditions of this study, SWAT was superior to HEC-HMS and statistically more adequate for future predictions in the basin. SWAT presented a greater potential for use by management bodies and urban planning in the management of the risks of extreme hydrological events.