Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Urban Service-Industry Land in China

The level of service-industry development has become an important symbol of the competitiveness and influence of cities. The study of the dynamic evolution characteristics and patterns of urban service-industry land use, the driving factors and their interactions is helpful to provide a basis for decision making in policy design and land use planning for the development of service economies. In this study we have conducted an empirical study of China, based on the methods of spatial cold- and hot-spot analysis, Tapio's decoupling model, and GeoDetector. We found that: (1) the scales of land use, output efficiencies and development intensities of service-industries are increasing with a trend that takes the form of a "J", "U" and "inverted U", respectively; (2) Spatial variabilities and agglomerations are significant, with a stable spatial pattern of the scale of service-industry land use, and a gradient in the distribution of cold- and hot-spots. The dominant spatial units of output efficiency and development intensity have changed from low and lower to high and higher, and the cold- and hot-spots gather in clusters; (3) The development of service-industries is highly dependent on the input of land-resources, and only a few provinces are in a state of strong decoupling, while most are in a state of weak decoupling, with quite a few still in a state of expansive coupling, expansive negative decoupling, or even strong negative decoupling; (4) There are many driving factors for land use changes in the service-industry, with increasingly complicated and diversified relationships between each other, ranked in intensity as the scale effect > informatization > globalization > industrialization > urbanization.