System dynamic modeling of energy savings in the US food industry

In the United States, the food industry alone accounts for approximately 19% of the total energy consumed. The objective of this study is to forecast the food-related energy consumption and evaluate policy alternatives for reducing food related energy consumption in the medium and long term. Influential factors of energy consumption in the food industry include population growth rate, GDP, agriculture's share of GDP, food waste, technologies, and agricultural investment. Based on the life cycle of the food industry, five life stages were considered: agricultural production, industrial processing and packaging, transportation, wholesale and retail, and household. In this study, based on the causal relationships and feedback loops between these factors and the energy consumed for each life stage, a system dynamics (SD) model was designed to simulate the situation for the US food industry. Policy options of reducing waste percentage and improving industrial energy productivity are incorporated for building the energy use mitigation scenarios. By implementing the integrated mitigation scenarios, a 9.43% reduction in total food system energy consumption can be attained in 2030. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.