Long-Term Outcomes of Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer: The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center Experience

Purpose: We report oncologic outcomes for men with Grade Group 1 prostate cancer managed with active surveillance at a tertiary cancer center. Materials and Methods: A total of 2,907 patients were managed with active surveillance between 2000 and 2017, of whom 2,664 had Grade Group 1 disease. Patients were recommended confirmatory biopsy to verify eligibility and were followed semiannually with prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination and review of symptoms. Magnetic resonance imaging was increasingly used in recent years. Biopsy was repeated every 2 to 3 years or after a sustained prostate specific antigen increase or changes in magnetic resonance imaging/digital rectal examination. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate probabilities of treatment, progression and development of metastasis. Results: Median patient age at diagnosis was 62 years. For men with Grade Group 1 prostate cancer the treatment-free probability at 5, 10 and 15 years was 76% (95% CI 74-78), 64% (95% CI 61-68) and 58% (95% CI 51-64), respectively. At 5, 10 and 15 years there were 1,146, 220 and 25 men at risk for metastasis, respectively. Median followup for those without metastasis was 4.3 years (95% CI 2.3-6.9). Distant metastasis developed in 5 men. Upon case note review only 2 of these men were deemed to have disease that could have been cured on immediate treatment. The risk of distant metastasis was 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-2.0) at 10 years. Conclusions: Active surveillance is a safe strategy over longer followup for appropriately selected patients with Grade Group 1 disease following a well-defined monitoring plan.