Spatial and temporal variability and risk assessment of regional climate change in northern China: a case study in Shandong Province

Based on meteorological data from 20 meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1984 to 2019, this paper analyses the spatial and temporal variability of climate elements in different climate regions of Shandong Province using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and predicts their future spatial and temporal trends using rescaled range analysis (R/S). The results of the study show: (1) mean annual temperature (T-mean), mean annual maximum temperature (T-max) and mean annual minimum temperature (T-min) of five climate regions in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend with significant differences (|Z| > 2.32). The mean annual precipitation (P-mean) also tends to increase slightly (|Z| < 1.28), but with frequent mutations and irregularly. Mean annual sunshine hours (S-H-mean), mean annual wind speeds (W-S-mean) and mean annual maximum wind speeds (W-S-max) show a significant downward trend (|Z| > 2.32), with the mutation time occurring in the late 1990s and early twenty-first century; (2) The EOF analysis shows that the types of spatial distribution of each climate element are diverse and significantly different, but all are dominated by the first mode, reflecting the overall consistency of climate change. The temporal coefficient trends show differences, which indicates the existence of diverse regional differences of each climate element; and (3) the R/S analysis shows that the future trend in Shandong Province will remain in line with the trend of the past 36a, i.e. mostly warm and wet with low wind speed and sunshine hours, but with regional differences. This study aims to develop strategies for local built environment, World Heritage protection, living environment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry in order to cope with regional climate change.