Economically and environmentally sustainable long-term power system expansion

Electricity consumption and generation are vital elements of a country's economic sustainability and growth. The United Nations proposes 17 sustainable development goals to achieve a better and more sustainable future. Four of these goals are related to affordable and clean energy, decent work and economic growth, sustainable energy infrastructure, and climate action. Aligned with these goals, we examine long-term power system capacity and generation expansion strategies where minimization of costs and greenhouse gas emissions and maximization of economic growth and employment strategies are considered. The optimization model is formulated as a large-scale, multi-period, mixed-integer linear program (MILP). We apply our model to Turkey which seeks to grow its economy using the energy sector in the face of a looming economic crisis while achieving emissions reduction targets. Additionally, we share key insights and policy implications resulting from the proposed plans. The results show that there is a conflict between traditional strategies and other sustainability measures such as pollutant emissions, economic growth, and employment rates. The cost minimization scenario yields significant investments in renewable energy sources with nearly equivalent investments in fossil fuel energy sources. Upon minimizing emissions, over half of the fossil fuel investments from the cost minimization case are displaced by investments in nuclear capacity. Similar investments in nuclear capacity are realized in the employment maximization and GDP maximization case, however, these cases yield relatively elevated fossil fuel investments and significantly reduced renewable investments.