Agent-Based Modeling of Noncommunicable Diseases: A Systematic Review

We reviewed the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), a systems science method, in understanding non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their public health risk factors. We systematically reviewed studies in PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Sciences published from January 2003 to July 2014. We retrieved 22 relevant articles; each had an observational or interventional design. Physical activity and diet were the most-studied outcomes. Often, single agent types were modeled, and the environment was usually irrelevant to the studied outcome. Predictive validation and sensitivity analyses were most used to validate models. Although increasingly used to study NCDs, ABM remains underutilized and, where used, is suboptimally reported in public health studies. Itsuse in studying NCDs will benefit from clarified best practices and improved rigor to establish its usefulness and facilitate-replication, interpretation, and application.