Back-Up-Capacity Prediction in a Power-Grid Dominated by Renewable Electricity

Renewable energy in electricity grids require a certain amount of conventional back-up-capacity to accommodate for power shortages due to the intermittency of renewable electricity generation. To predict such conventional generation-capacities required in the future, a statistical model for the backup-demand in Germany is developed using grid data of the German Net Agency from 2015 to 1018. Tests clearly indicate that residual load in the grid which has to be backed-up has a normal distribution. Future mean-values and standard deviations for this distribution are modelled from the available data by using linear, logistic and exponential regression formulas. Then probabilities are determined for exhaustion of back-up capabilities for different grid scenarios for Germany.