The effect of total factor productivity of forestry industry on CO2 emissions: a spatial econometric analysis of China

Forestry plays an essential role in reducing CO2 emissions and promoting green and sustainable development. This paper estimates the CO2 emissions of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017, and uses Global DEA-Malmquist to measure the total factor productivity of the forestry industry and its decomposition index. On this basis, by constructing a spatial econometric model, this paper aims to empirically study the impact of forestry industry's total factor productivity and its decomposition index on CO2 emissions, and further analyze its direct, indirect and total effects. The study finds that the impact of forestry industry's total factor productivity on CO2 emissions shows an "inverted U-shaped" curve and the inflection point is 0.9395. The spatial spillover effect of CO2 emissions is significantly negative. The increase of CO2 emissions in adjacent areas will provide a "negative case" for the region, so that the region can better address its own energy conservation and emission reduction goals. TFP of forestry industry also has positive spatial spillover effect. However, considering the particularity of forestry industry, this effect is not very significant. For other factors, such as foreign direct investment, urbanization level, industrial structure and technology market turnover will also significantly affect regional CO2 emissions.