Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin

In this paper a scenario study of the residential land-use development in the Elbe River Basin is presented. The study uses an approach that empirically determines suitability maps for the application within a land-use-change model. Recent urbanisation processes are explained in the first step and arc used in simulations of future land use in the second step. Binomial logistic regression analysis is applied in an analysis of the location characteristics influencing residential land-use change. Estimation results are adapted and used as weights in the calculation of suitability maps, which consist of the location characteristics of residential land-use change. Including policy maps in suitability calculations allows important spatial restrictions to be accounted for and enables the impact of spatial planning on the allocation of residential developments to be analysed. The suitability maps are further applied to the Land Use Scanner model to simulate spatially explicit residential land-use developments in the Elbe River Basin. Results of this study show that empirically determined suitability maps used in models of land-use change can contribute to the operational use of scenario studies in political discussion support. Considerable differences in applied policy maps in terms of their contribution to the sustainable development of residential and use are discussed.