Immigration Background and Differences in School-to-work Trajectories of Early School Leavers

This article focuses on the school-to-work trajectories of early school leavers in Sweden. I use sequence analysis of population-level registry data covering the first 10 years after compulsory school for 6404 early school leavers to identify four clusters of school-to-work trajectories: an exclusion trajectory characterized by not being in employment, education, or training; an education trajectory characterized by second-chance education and an increasing share of tertiary education; a precarity trajectory; and a career trajectory. Having an immigrant background or being a woman was associated with a lower likelihood of being in the career trajectory than having a non-immigrant background or being a man. Differences in the likelihood of being in the education trajectory between persons with immigrant and non-immigrant background could however be fully explained by parents' education, if education level was measured relative to their country of origin. This highlights the importance of pre-migration factors for post-migration outcomes.