Patterns of shrub abundance and relationships with other plant types within the forest-tundra ecotone in northern Canada

Throughout the forest-tundra ecotone where trees and tall shrubs are becoming more abundant, knowledge of associations between shrubs and surrounding vegetation could inform predictions of their changing relationships. We assessed shrubs in 1 m x 1 m contiguous quadrats along two similar to 450 m transects across tundra and ecotone landscapes near Churchill, Canada to determine patterns in relation to lakeshore edges, soil pH, microtopography, and other plant groups. We used wavelet analysis to assess patterns and generalized least squares for relationships with environmental variables. Shrubs were taller and more diverse at edges, particularly in tundra. The ecotone was more complex than tundra with greater variation in tall shrub and tree cover, shrub height, and microtopography. Shrub richness was positively correlated with microtopography but exhibited no relationship with pH. Bivariate relationships of shrubs with other plant groups varied for different scales. In tundra, shrub richness was negatively correlated with graminoids, forbs, and moss, but positively correlated with lichens within 1 m; opposite relationships were found at 4-60 m scales. Relationships in the ecotone were reversed and more complex at different scales. As trees encroach in the tundra, the spatial pattern of shrubs will become more complex at a variety of scales, likely with cascading effects on other plant types.