Relapse recovery The forgotten variable in multiple sclerosis clinical trials

Objective To determine whether basing the decision to initiate immediate vs delayed disease-modifying therapy (DMT) on extent of recovery after initial relapse affects long-term disability accumulation in a multiple sclerosis (MS) evidence-based setting. Methods We analyzed the double-blind, placebo-controlled interferon beta-1a 30 mc once a week in clinically isolated syndrome and 10-year-follow-up extension trial. Good recovery after presenting relapse was defined as (1) full early recovery within 28 days of symptom onset (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score of 0 at enrollment maintained >= 6 months) and (2) delayed good recovery (EDSS score > 0 at enrollment and improvement from peak deficit to 6th-month or 1-year visit >= median). Time from recovery assignment to future disability (EDSS score >= 2.5 or >= 4.0) was studied on a relapse-recovery-stratified age axis and immediate vs 3-year delayed treatment initiation with Kaplan-Meier statistics and hazard ratios (HRs). Results One hundred seventy-five/328 patients had good recovery (94 immediate and 81 delayed treatment); 153 did not have good recovery (77 immediate and 76 delayed treatment). HRs for EDSS score >= 2.5 outcome were: delayed treatment without good recovery as reference (HR = 1.0), delayed treatment with good recovery (HR6th-month: 0.67, p = 0.207; HR1st-year: 0.40, p = 0.027), immediate treatment without good recovery (HR6th-month: 0.56, p = 0.061; HR1st-year: 0.40, p = 0.011), and immediate treatment with good recovery (HR6th-month: 0.43, p = 0.014; HR1st-year: 0.48, p = 0.034). Placebo patients were switched to long-term treatment after 3 years, and insufficient EDSS score >= 4.0 outcome events were available to study. Conclusions In patients with MS presenting without good recovery after the initial relapse, immediate DMT initiation favorably influences the likelihood of more ambulatory-benign disease akin to patients with good recovery after the initial relapse. Classification of evidence This study provides Class III evidence that for patients with MS without good recovery after the initial relapse, immediate DMT initiation increases the likelihood of a benign disease course.