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Dynamic Risk Assessment in Sexual Offenders Using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007: An Investigation of Predictive and Incremental Validity

被引：65
|
作者：
Eher, Reinhard [1 ,2 ]
Matthes, Anna [3 ]
Schilling, Frank [1 ]
Haubner-MacLean, Tanja [1 ]
Rettenberger, Martin [1 ]
机构：
[1] FECVSO, A-1210 Vienna, Austria
[2] Univ Ulm, Ulm, Germany
[3] Jugendanstalt Hameln, Hameln, Germany
来源：
SEXUAL ABUSE-A JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND TREATMENT | 2012年 / 24卷 / 01期
关键词：
STABLE-2000; STABLE-2007; STATIC-99; SORAG; predictive validity; incremental validity; sex offender; ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENTS; ACTUARIAL ASSESSMENT; RECIDIVISM RISK; STATIC-99; METAANALYSIS; ACCURACY; SCALE; VALIDATION; RELAPSE;
D O I：
10.1177/1079063211403164
中图分类号：
B849 [应用心理学];
学科分类号：
040203 ;
摘要：
The predictive accuracy of STABLE-2000 and STABLE-2007 was examined within a prospective research design in a German-speaking sample of 263 adult male prison-released sexual offenders followed up for an average of 6.4 years. The STABLE-2007 was significantly related to all outcomes (AUC = 0.67-0.71), whereas the STABLE-2000 demonstrated only weak predictive accuracy for sexual reoffense (AUC = 0.62). Supporting the results of the construction sample, the STABLE-2007 incrementally added to the predictive accuracy of the STATIC-99 for violent and general reoffense (conviction and incarceration). Moreover, the STABLE-2007 total scores and the nominal risk/need categories made significant incremental contributions over the SORAG for predicting sexual reoffense.
引用
收藏
页码：5 / 28
页数：24
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