The Effect of Age Structure of the Population on Economic Growth in Iran using the ARDL Approach

Population and age structure developments over time, are considered as one of the important issues affecting the economic growth and development of societies. In this research, the effect of age structure of the population on the economic growth of Iran in the period of 1987-2017 is investigated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) method. For this purpose, the age structure of the population was classified into three groups: 0-14 years, 15-64 years (active population), and older than 64 years. The results of this study indicate that the effect of growth of 0-14 years old population of the total population, in short term, on the economic growth is insignificant. The effect of the growth shares of population aged 15-64 years from the total population is positive and significant on economic growth, in the short and long term. Also, the effect of the growth shares of the population older than 64 years from the total population on economic growth is negative and significant in long term. The error correction coefficient shows that about 97% of short-term imbalances are corrected each year to achieve long-term equilibrium.