Weather Risk Management in Marine Survey Campaigns for the Offshore Investment Projects in the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone

Weather is a crucial factor (and the most unpredictable of all factors) determining the success or failure of any offshore activity, such as investments in seafloor grid connectors (gas, energy, or communication), development of oil and gas drilling facilities, and erection of offshore wind farms. Weather conditions cannot be foreseen accurately over a time horizon longer than a few days, and so arranging a realistic work schedule for such an enterprise poses a great challenge. This paper identifies and analyzes the greatest risks associated with weather conditions at sea. The importance and impact of weather on the project implementation are assessed and mitigating measures are proposed. As part of the work, a review of scientific literature was conducted, and the core conclusions were reached using information-gathering techniques and a documentation review of the offshore projects implemented in cooperation with the Maritime Institute. The authors based their analysis on experience from survey campaigns conducted in the Baltic Sea in the areas of the investments planned for implementation. The analysis of risks associated with weather conditions is based on the statistical weather data obtained using the Wave Ocean Model cycle 4 (WAM4). The research reveals that it is impossible to create an accurate survey schedule for long-term offshore projects; however, using statistics for each individual hydrodynamic parameter can, to some extent, facilitate the creation of survey schedules for maritime projects. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Offshore wind energy is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world energy sector, yet there is no wind farm in the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone on the Baltic Sea. To date, however, many preinvestment studies and survey campaigns have been carried out for several such investments. Some of them were conducted by the team of the Maritime Institute of Poland. The biggest challenge for us was to plan the survey campaigns because of the weather conditions that cannot be foreseen accurately over a time horizon longer than a few days. The experience gained in the process was an inspiration to write this article in which we identify and analyze the weatherrelated risks. The obtained results, although representative for the Baltic Sea region area, are also of a more universal character and can be used by offshore managers all over the world.