The global nuclear fuel market: Supply and demand 1998-2020

Since 1996, there have been several important developments which have had or may have an impact on the nuclear fuel market. These include electricity market restructuring in many countries, the economic turbulence in East Asia, and the increased interest in the environmental advantages of nuclear power in the context of limits on the emissions of greenhouse gases agreed to at the Kyoto climate conference. Rapid growth in world demand for electricity has provided a strong market for the development of nuclear power over the past 30 years, and it now contributes 17% of world electricity supply. Today, electricity demand growth is relatively low in most of the countries where nuclear power is well established, but remains rapid in many developing countries. In both established and potential markets, nuclear power faces a tough competitive challenge from rival modes of generation, while continuing to face regulatory and political hurdles. The forecasts of nuclear generating capacity in individual countries and areas have been fully revised. It is expected that the fortunes of nuclear power in a relatively small number of countries, notably the United States, China, Japan and Russia, will be particularly crucial in determining nuclear power's overall contribution to world electricity supplies. The Uranium Institute has prepared three scenarios for world nuclear generating capacity up to 2020, referred to as the reference, upper and lower scenarios. These range from a modest revival of nuclear power to a substantial decline over the forecast period. At the end of 1997, world nuclear capacity was 346 GWe. In the reference scenario this is expected to be 349 GWe by 2000, and then to grow to 376 GWe by 2010 and to 405 GWe by 2020. The annual average rate of growth over the whole period is 0.7%. Given expected world electricity demand growth substantially in excess of this, the nuclear share of total generation is likely to decrease. In the upper scenario, the equivalent figures are 355 GWe in 2000, 422 GWe in 2010, and 483 GWe in 2020. The lower case has 346 GWe in 2000, 345 GWe in 2010, and 293 GWe by 2020.