The neighborhood context of foreclosures and crime

The epidemic of foreclosures across the United States in the mid-2000 decade offers a unique opportunity to examine neighborhood changes that result over extended periods of time. In this analysis, a series of structural and contextual factors are modeled to determine whether concentrated foreclosures correspond to later crime increases that might lead to long-term neighborhood problems. The results first revealed a conflict between Census tract and block group data that lead to a discussion of the Simpson's Paradox as it relates to the selection of the appropriate geographic scale for further analysis. Using spatial analysis techniques it was determined that the block group (micro-level) results are more accurate for interpretation. With the block group results, a positive and complex relationship between foreclosure and crime is found across various neighborhood contexts. The use of spatial analysis approaches allow for a more in-depth discussion to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between foreclosures and crime identified in the model results.