Novel Grey Verhulst Model and Its Prediction Accuracy

Although the grey Verhulst model has been widely adopted in many fields and demonstrated satisfactory results, literatures show its performance still could be enhanced. For this purpose, on the basis of modeling mechanism of grey Verhulst model, this paper proposes a novel grey Verhulst model considering related factors influencing the prediction accuracy of systems. In this proposed model, this work provides an algorithm for computing the modeling parameters of this novel grey model and obtains the time response equation of this proposed model by employing a differential equation as a reasoning tool. Finally, a case example is adopted for demonstration. Case analysis shows that compared with the original grey Verhulst model, the novel model has higher performances on model forecasting.