Household characteristics or neighborhood conditions? Exploring the determinants of housing spells among US public housing residents*

Designed as a temporary housing option for low-income individuals, public housing has often been argued to be a permanent home for many of its residents. Longer durations of time spent on housing assistance have led to debates around public housing as more of a cause than an effect of poverty spells. This article analyzes the determinants of exit among public housing residents. Using a sample from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, this article ascertains the individual characteristics and neighborhood factors associated with longer spell durations. The results suggest that most public housing residents exit public housing in the first 5 years. In terms of individual characteristics, spell length, age and income played a modest role in understanding public housing exits. In addition, neighborhoods with higher levels of poverty and median household income had significant positive effects on the odds of exiting public housing. However, the effect sizes of household characteristics and neighborhood conditions were relatively small when considering the post-1996 era of policy reform. The results suggest that public housing exits may largely be due to shifts in housing policy and social welfare programs rather than household characteristics and neighborhood conditions.