Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin: Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors Based on a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) Decomposition Method

The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period and a window to obtain emission peak and carbon neutrality in China. The Yellow River Basin, a vital location for population activities and economic growth, is significant to China's emission peak by 2030. Analyzing carbon emissions patterns and decomposing the influencing factors can provide theoretical support for reducing carbon emissions. Based on the energy consumption data from 2000-2019, the method recommended by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is used to calculate the carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method decomposes the influence degree of each influencing factor. The conclusions are as follows: First, The Yellow River Basin has not yet reached the peak of carbon emissions. Regional carbon emissions trends are different. Second, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and Inner Mongolia consistently ranked in the top four in total carbon emissions, with low carbon emission efficiency. Third, Economic development has the most significant contribution to carbon emissions; other factors have various effects on nine provinces.