DUALITY INPUT-OUTPUT TO ESTIMATE THE COST OF DEFICIT IN A PRODUCTION SYSTEM OF ELECTRICITY

We discuss a methodology to estimate the cost of deficit in a production system of electricity, using data from the I-O matrix. This methodology has a strong impact on policies of operation and expansion of the hydrotheimal system; this is because the objective function of the hydrotheimal system optimization model is to minimize the total cost of operation plus the cost of deficit. The cause of this deficit may be a lack of investment and/or low water inflows that impact the production of hydroelectric power plants. As a consequence directly impacts on short team pricing policy. The marginal cost of the deficit (DMC) is an important parameter used to calculate operation marginal cost and short-team market pricing. In this methodology, the DMC is obtained from restrictions on the provision of electricity in productive sectors and by calculating the corresponding impact on the gross domestic product (GDP). We obtain a deficit cost curve with 1% variations of reduction in the electricity supply. The methodology can be used with data from the I-O matrix of any country to estimate its marginal cost of electric energy deficit.