The changing competitive landscape of the global upstream petroleum industry

From the 1920s to the 1960s, seven major International Oil Companies (IOCs) were almost the only market players in the global petroleum industry. Their share of oil and gas reserves, however, fell dramatically from about 85 per cent in 1970 to less than 10 per cent today. Changes in the competitive dynamics of the upstream petroleum industry are, however, less studied areas in the literature. In this article, we conduct a review of previous studies to answer the question: Is the traditional business model of IOCs still valid? We propose a theoretical framework and give a historical account of IOCs erosion and Global National Oil Companies (GNOCs) ascent to the top. Finally, we explore an array of possible future scenarios. We argue that IOCs are not in a position to regain the lost ground if they remain wedded to their traditional business model.