Climate change impact on economic and irrigation requirements for sugarcane crop in Egypt

Availability of irrigation water is considered one of the major challenges faced by Egypt currently and will become increasingly difficult in the future due to the limited water resources and linear increase of population. The current study investigates irrigation demand for sugarcane cultivation areas in the Middle and Upper Egypt Governorates (Menia, Asyut, Sohag, Qena, Luxor and Aswan) during present times and under representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. The data was collected within the period between 1971 and 2000, and the RCP data were collected for different scenarios (RCP 3, RCP 4.5, RCP 6 and RCP 8.5) during three-time series (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The highest evapotranspiration (ETo) values during current and future conditions were found in Luxor and Aswan governorates; while the lowest ETo values were recorded in Menia and Asyut. All RCPs scenarios were significantly higher than the current conditions. Moreover, the highest irrigation requirements under RCP scenarios were recorded in Aswan and Luxor under RCP 8.5 during 2071-2100 time series. While Menia, under RCP3 at 2011-2040 recorded the lowest irrigation water needs under climate change. Interpolated maps were done for the clear appearance of the difference between water requirements under different climatic condition. The advantage of the current work was to give a clear vision related to the economic status of irrigation water management under current and future conditions for one of the major crops in Egypt.