Effect of climate change on earthworks of infrastructure: statistical evaluation of the cause of dike pavement cracks

The flood protection embankments of Hungary and Europe face numerous challenges. Some dike bases were constructed more than 200 years ago; since then, they have been elevated and extended. Because of these iterative adaptations, the dikes bear many construction errors, which can trigger failures and slides. Due to climate change, droughts and low-water periods of the rivers in central Europe are becoming more frequent. As a result of these effects, the water balance of the dikes can alter and desiccate in the long term. The most staggering fissures appeared on dikes built from clays susceptible to volume change. The General Directorate of Water Management ordered a comprehensive survey of dike pavement cracks in Hungary. This was one of the most extensive surveys of such kind. Hungary has some 4400 km of primary flood protection embankments, out of which 1250 km is paved. There are multiple reasons why the pavement of an embankment can crack. The main features of crack patterns related to clays with shrink-swell potential are identified. The results of international studies and the present survey are synthesised. The main objective of this paper is to draw a correlation between drought (aridity) zones, plasticity index of the soil samples, and crack thickness.