Cost-effectiveness analysis of donafenib versus lenvatinib for first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma

Background Donafenib and lenvatinib are approved by China National Medical Products Administration and recommended as first-line treatment of Metastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of donafenib compared with lenvatinib for first-line treatment of advanced HCC in China. Methods A partitioned survival model consisting with three health states was developed to simulate lifetime development of advanced HCC from China healthcare payer's perspective. The lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), life-years (LYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. The efficacy data were obtained from ZGDH3 and REFLECT trials. The cost and health outcomes were discounted at a rate of 5%. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were carried out to explore the variation of model results. Results Compared with lenvatinib, donafenib incurred more costs of $1500.86 and had 0.139 QALYs gained, resulting in an ICER of $10,790.18/QALY. The probability of being cost-effective was 84.9% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of gross domestic product per capita in 2020 in China ($31,499.2/QALY). Sensitive and scenario analysis results were in line with base-case analysis. Conclusions Donafenib appears to be a cost-effective strategy compared with lenvatinib for the first-line treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic HCC in China.