Consumer Preferences for National Brands and Private Labels: Do Business Cycles Matter?

Over 150 categories of consumer package goods, both national brands and private labels, are sold in U.S. supermarkets and this paper examines changes in market shares for these goods for one supermarket chain. This chain operates in most states but data used in Case Study 1 of this research covers 140 supermarkets across three states. These data are available for 2011-2013 and results show market share gains for private labels within 62 categories. The data period used has been one of economic growth for the U.S. and therefore market share gains for private labels cannot be attributed to declining disposable income. Rather, market share growth for private labels is most likely due to shifting consumer preferences. A second data set is used for Case Study 2 of this research and these data come from the same supermarket chain. Consumer preferences for breakfast cereals and coffee are analyzed and these data show significant growth of private labels among all consumers, but this growth is especially pronounced for lower-income consumers. These expressed preferences support the premise that lower-income consumers have higher price-sensitivity and higher propensities for purchasing private labels.