Potential impacts of precipitation change on large-scale patterns of tree diversity

被引:7
|
作者
Konar, M. [1 ]
Muneepeerakul, R. [1 ]
Azaele, S. [1 ]
Bertuzzo, E. [2 ]
Rinaldo, A. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. [1 ]
机构
[1] Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[2] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Lab Ecohydrol, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
[3] Univ Padua, Dept IMAGE, Padua, Italy
[4] Univ Padua, Int Ctr Hydrol Dino Tonini, Padua, Italy
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MODELS; BIODIVERSITY; ENVELOPE; FUTURE;
D O I
10.1029/2010WR009384
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Forests are globally important ecosystems host to outstanding biological diversity. Widespread efforts have addressed the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in these ecosystems. We show that a metacommunity model founded on basic ecological processes offers direct linkage from large-scale forcing, such as precipitation, to tree diversity patterns of the Mississippi-Missouri River System and its subregions. We quantify changes in tree diversity patterns under various projected precipitation patterns, resulting in a range of responses. Uncertainties accompanying global climate models necessitate the use of scenarios of biodiversity. Here we present results from scenarios with the largest losses and gains in tree diversity. Our results suggest that species losses under scenarios with the most dramatic contractions tend to be greater in magnitude, spatial extent, and statistical significance than gains under alternative scenarios. These findings are expected to have important implications for conservation policy and resource management.
引用
收藏
页数:9
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