Electoral victory and statistical defeat? Economics, politics, and the 2004 Presidential Election

被引:3
|
作者
Nordhaus, William [1 ]
机构
[1] Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1561/100.00000014
中图分类号
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要
The 2004 election has been interpreted as a resounding victory for conservative values. Was it in fact a mandate? The present analysis examines recent electoral outcomes and the 2004 election with particular reference to economic and political fundamentals. It compares the results of the 2004 election with predictions using voting models. Additionally, it identifies the trends for different socioeconomic groups. It concludes that the Republican incumbent candidate in 2004 did significantly worse than would be predicted based on economic and political variables such as incumbency and economic performance.
引用
收藏
页码:313 / 322
页数:10
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