Long-term scenarios for nuclear power: The role of innovation

Nuclear energy is a potential substantial contributor to meet growing global energy needs while generating very low carbon emissions, little air pollution, and small solid waste volumes. In 2000 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) started the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) to help guide nuclear R&D strategies targeted on anticipated mid-century energy system needs. What is included in INPRO's first phase is the development of alternative scenarios of those "anticipated mid-century energy system needs." The starting point was the 40 scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, the SRES scenarios do not present their underlying energy system structures in enough details to easily draw conclusions about nuclear R&D needs. This paper describes the steps taken to elaborate selected SRES scenarios to a level of nuclear-relevant detail useful for guiding R&D strategists. Four SRES scenarios were selected. As recommended in SRES, they cover all four SRES "storyline families." Subsequent steps include: Elaborating each scenario's narrative storyline on topics relevant to nuclear energy, e.g., reprocessing, waste disposal sites, international transport of radioactive material, preferred unit size for electricity generators, transportation fuels, priority of environmental objectives, etc. The elaboration is based on the documented storyline descriptions provided in SRES and its background publications, plus an understanding of likely impacts on nuclear policy and technology of the variations among storylines. Estimating additional market penetration into electricity markets and potential new markets for chemical fuel production, district and process heat, sea water desalination and fossil fuel upgrading that nuclear could capture from competitors were it to improve costs 'more aggressively" than is assumed in the four selected SRES scenarios. Estimating the nuclear technology learning rates consistent with more aggressive cost improvements and comparing them with the learning rates implicit in the original selected SRES scenarios.