Evaluation freeway diversion route plans in integrated incident management systems under uncertainties

The paper presented a methodology for analyzing diversion route plans in integrated incident management systems under uncertainties. The proposed methodology uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate a set of possible combinations of independent parameters that later are used in a microscopic traffic simulation model to yield a set of values of an output parameter that reflects the network-wide quality of service. These values for the response (output) parameter could be used to determine the distribution of the probability density function of the parameter and to develop a regression model that examines the dependence of the response on the independent parameters.