To peer or not to peer: Modeling the evolution of the Internet's AS-level topology

Internet connectivity at the AS level, defined in terms of pairwise logical peering relationships, is constantly evolving. This evolution is largely a response to economic, political, and technological changes that impact the way ASs conduct their business. We present a new framework for modeling this evolutionary process by identifying a set of criteria that ASs consider either in establishing a new peering relationship or in reassessing an existing relationship. The proposed framework is intended to capture key elements in the decision processes underlying the formation of these relationships. We present two decision processes that are executed by an AS, depending on its role in a given peering decision, as a customer or a peer of another AS. When acting as a peer, a key feature of the AS's corresponding decision model is its reliance on realistic inter-AS traffic demands. To reflect the enormous heterogeneity among customer or peer ASs, our decision models are flexible enough to accommodate a wide range of AS-specific objectives. We demonstrate the potential of this new framework by considering different decision models in various realistic "what if" experiment scenarios. We implement these decision models to generate and study the evolution of the resulting AS graphs over time, and compare them against observed historical evolutionary features of the Internet at the AS level.