ON THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 HEALTH CRISIS ON GDP FORECASTING: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH

被引：1

作者：

Illanes, Gabriel ^{[1
]}

Mordecki, Ernesto ^{[1
]}

Sosa, Andres ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Republica, Fac Ciencias, Ctr Matemat, Igua 4225, Montevideo 11400, Uruguay

[2] Univ Republica, Fac Ciencias Econ & Adm, Inst Estadist, Gonzalo Ramirez 1926, Montevideo 11200, Uruguay

来源：

JOURNAL OF DYNAMICS AND GAMES | 2022年 / 9卷 / 03期

关键词：

Covid-19; pandemic; public health; epidemiology; GDP forecasting; Correlation analysis; linear models; ACCURACY;

D O I：

10.3934/jdg.2022008

中图分类号：

O1 [数学];

学科分类号：

0701 ; 070101 ;

摘要：

Statistical dependence between the GDP growth projection adjustments for the end of 2020 and the health impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is detected and quantified for a broad set of countries. A rate that captures this health impact for each country is contrasted to the difference in GDP growth projections for the end of 2020 released in two subsequent times: 2019 (pre-pandemic) and early 2020 (post-pandemic). The difference of this two variables exhibited a significant rank correlation with the rate, and a linear model was successfully fitted, concluding that at the beginning of the pandemic health conditions played a significant role in the GDP projections.

引用

页码：229 / 239

页数：11

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