Impacts of urban forms and socioeconomic factors on CO2 emissions: A spatial econometric analysis

Planning and development of urban is one of the key factors that affect CO2 emissions. Sustainable urban planning and development is crucial to achieving carbon neutrality. However, there are relatively less studies in quantifying the impacts of urban forms and socioeconomic development on CO2 emissions with considering its spatial autocorrelation effects at the city-level. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the impacts of urban forms and socioeconomic factors on CO2 emissions of cities in Guangdong province during 2000-2017 based on a spatial panel econometric model. The results showed that CO2 emissions of Guangdong province increased significantly with a growth rate of 151% and had obvious spatial clustering characteristics. Urban form and socioeconomic development had a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Specifically, the results indicated that increasing the continuity of urban areas and improving the traffic coupling factor can help reduce CO2 emissions. The economic growth, population increase and economic openness degree increase would lead to stronger CO2 emission. In addition, the spatial spillover effects would enhance such impacts of the driving factors. Specifically, when the spillover effect of spatial Dubin model was taken into account, every 1% increase in urban class area, mean perimeter-area ratio, GDP, population, technology level and urbanization rate would lead a total CO2 emissions change by-0.53%, 1.3%, 1.1%, 0.18%, 12% and 1.4%, respectively. The results suggested that cities in Guangdong province should develop a more compact pattern, urban development with a scattered or disperse pattern should transform towards one continuous core city cluster and city belt, thus enhancing integration and sharing of infrastructure and related policies for low carbon development.