Cagan's paradox and money demand in hyperinflation: Revisited at daily frequency

被引:11
|
作者
Mladenovic, Zorica [1 ]
Petrovic, Pavle [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Belgrade, Econ Fac, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
关键词
Hyperinflation; Money demand; Cagan's paradox; Daily frequency; INFLATION TAX; EXCHANGE-RATE; UNIT-ROOT; MODEL; TESTS; STATIONARITY;
D O I
10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.05.005
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Using daily data the Cagan money demand is estimated and accepted for the most severe portion of Serbia's 1992-1993 hyperinflation, i.e. its last 6 months. An implication is that the public adjusted daily throughout this extreme period. Moreover, the obtained semi-elasticity estimates are by far lower than those previously found using monthly data sets. Consequently, the daily estimates reject the longstanding Cagan's paradox, based on monthly studies, by showing that the economy has been on the correct, increasing side of the Laffer curve almost through the end of hyperinflation. This strongly supports the view that hyperinflation is triggered and driven all way through its end by the government's hunt for non-decreasing seigniorage. Daily adjustments of public in hyperinflation can account for the difference between the results obtained at daily and monthly frequencies, calling into question the latter. Some evidence is offered that the findings of this paper may hold for other hyperinflations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页码:1369 / 1384
页数:16
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