Convergence and distribution dynamics of energy consumption among China's households

Whether there will be a long-run equilibrium (steady state) in energy demand per capita is a critical question for energy and environmental policy makers. While many studies have been done on energy production and energy consumption, little attention has been paid to whether disparities in relative household energy consumption (RHEC) converge, and how the use of aggregated data has serious limitations. This paper is the first study to investigate the convergence and dynamics of household energy consumption in China. The results are helpful to Chinese policy makers when trying to identify the key groups for priority interventions. The study finds that variability in the RHEC is very high and that many households will likely change their energy consumption patterns in the coming years. Overall, Chinese households have two convergence clubs. The current dynamics will probably lead to lower energy consumption for most households. The study suggests that policy makers should pay particular attention to households that have too low or too high RHEC level, mainly in rural areas and in the western region.